Tired of the 1,382 different scenarios that every pundit in America is predicting for the outcome of the electoral map this year? Well, even if you’re not, I am. It’s very in vogue right now (and maybe always has been) to make darkhorse picks–perennial red states turning blue and vice-versa. These people would have you believe they know exactly what they’re talking about, but the fact remains that there’s still a lot of campaigning and polling to be done between now and November 4.
In his column today, writer Richard Baehr adds his two cents, asking, “What States Are Really In Play?” Sure, you might be thinking it’s just another horse-race story, but he at least seems to back up his claims with current polling data and what appears to be solid reasoning (of course this time of year, everything is suspect).
Below we have the “current situation.” This map can be found in its context here.
2008 Electoral Map, September 17
States that are dark are solidly in that campaigns camp (obviously McCain is red and Obama is blue). Lighter shades are categorized as “weakly” for that candidate, and those that are white with an outline of color are “barely” for him. White states (Pennsylvania and Virginia) are exactly tied, according to this group’s data.
For reference, below you can find the 2004 and 2000 presidential maps, both featuring George W. Bush as the Republican candidate (red) against John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Albert Gore (D-Tenn.) respectively.
2004 Electoral Map: Bush v. Kerry
2000 Electoral Map: Bush v. Gore
Each of these maps were provided by PoliticalMaps.org. The site is an incredible resource. I managed to find a breakdown of the state of Pennsylvania. Being from this swing state (Beaver County–the little blue one all the way to the west and near the center), I found it terribly interesting. Those in Texas might be intrigued to see how “evenly divided” states do, in fact, break down demographically and electorally. The large population centers are Pittsburgh (Southwestern PA) and Philadelphia (Southeastern PA). While Philly’s surrounding area may be moderately Republican, the city itself is a Democratic stronghold and is densely populated, offsetting the many, but sparsely populated Republican counties throughout the central and northern parts of the state.
Ok…so these maps are really great, as is your blog. And, as far as “…there’s still a lot of campaigning and polling to be done between now and November 4,” I couldn’t agree more!