From Silly to Serious

In case you hadn’t noticed, the entire world is crumbling down around us.  Or, at least that’s how it seems when you turn on CNN, MSNBC or any of the other cable news networks on the squawk box.  And to be perfectly honest, they might be right–what do I know?

But the point that Mort Kondracke makes in his September 18 column (“No More Lipstick–With Financial Crisis, Politics Gets Serious“) is undeniably true:  silly season has passed, and a new “serious season” of politics is beginning.  As if cueing the candidates to “get real,” Wall Street has turned this election cycle, for the time being at least, around a sharp bend, and this neighborhood looks distinctly foreign.  Yes, my friends, this is issues politics.

As Kondracke points out, this plays perfectly to Obama’s advantage—the Washington outsider and, perhaps more importantly, the non-incumbant.  Yet currently, Obama’s 19-point lead in voters who believe the economy is the #1 issue, has slipped to a mere 3 points.

It’s far too early to tell how this will play out.  The economy is a volatile thing (although it’s naive to say it’s going to get much better before Nov. 4), and how these campaigns handle it will make or break them.  But to me, that’s far less important.  Sure, it was silly season for a while, but it’s only that way because the press enabled it.

If we’re being completely frank, it’s the campaigns perogative to want to blame the media for certain issues.  With McCain, he blames them for being sexist.  For Obama, it’s, well, I don’t really know.  But that’s not important.  McCain can gripe about the media all he wants.  It will get his base fired up and that’s his intention.  What the press should do is not take the bait.

"Free Ride" by David Brock and Paul Waldman, 2008.

By that, I don’t mean they shouldn’t cover it, but that’s not all the media is doing.  They’re telling that story, and then whining about it.  The line of thinking is that McCain used to be best buds with many in the media, and his stances now seem at odds with “the man they knew.”  Well guess what?  America doesn’t care that your feelings are hurt.  Cover him like you did before, and stop making the news about yourself.

Now that I’m finished dumping all over my major, I bid you farewell.  Thoughts?

The New Math

Tired of the 1,382 different scenarios that every pundit in America is predicting for the outcome of the electoral map this year?  Well, even if you’re not, I am.  It’s very in vogue right now (and maybe always has been) to make darkhorse picks–perennial red states turning blue and vice-versa.  These people would have you believe they know exactly what they’re talking about, but the fact remains that there’s still a lot of campaigning and polling to be done between now and November 4.

In his column today, writer Richard Baehr adds his two cents, asking, “What States Are Really In Play?”  Sure, you might be thinking it’s just another horse-race story, but he at least seems to back up his claims with current polling data and what appears to be solid reasoning (of course this time of year, everything is suspect).

Below we have the “current situation.”  This map can be found in its context here.

2008 Electoral Map, September 17

 

States that are dark are solidly in that campaigns camp (obviously McCain is red and Obama is blue).  Lighter shades are categorized as “weakly” for that candidate, and those that are white with an outline of color are “barely” for him.  White states (Pennsylvania and Virginia) are exactly tied, according to this group’s data.

For reference, below you can find the 2004 and 2000 presidential maps, both featuring George W. Bush as the Republican candidate (red) against John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Albert Gore (D-Tenn.) respectively.

2004 Electoral Map: Bush v. Kerry

2000 Electoral Map: Bush v. Gore

Each of these maps were provided by PoliticalMaps.org.  The site is an incredible resource.  I managed to find a breakdown of the state of Pennsylvania.  Being from this swing state (Beaver County–the little blue one all the way to the west and near the center), I found it terribly interesting.  Those in Texas might be intrigued to see how “evenly divided” states do, in fact, break down demographically and electorally.  The large population centers are Pittsburgh (Southwestern PA) and Philadelphia (Southeastern PA).  While Philly’s surrounding area may be moderately Republican, the city itself is a Democratic stronghold and is densely populated, offsetting the many, but sparsely populated Republican counties throughout the central and northern parts of the state.

Experience: Hot or Not?

David Brooks is one of my favorite New York Times columnists.  As a moderate and an intellectual, I think he’s able to rise above a large amount of the petty arguments that are so commonplace on op-ed pages.

In today’s column, Brooks elaborates on the issue of “Why Experience Matters.”  The news peg for the article is fairly obvious, but experience has been a huge topic for debate this election cycle.  First, we saw John McCain and Hillary Clinton tout experience’s virtues, leaving the inexperienced (at the time, it was only Obama) to defend themselves as “change agents.”  Since McCain’s selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his runningmate, however, we’ve seen an about face–those once gushing over experience (McCain) are now proposing change, and those dismissing experience (Obama) are taking another look.

Toward the end of his well-constructed argument, Brooks writes:

Experienced leaders can certainly blunder if their minds have rigidified (see: Rumsfeld, Donald), but the records of leaders without long experience and prudence is not good. As George Will pointed out, the founders used the word “experience” 91 times in the Federalist Papers. Democracy is not average people selecting average leaders. It is average people with the wisdom to select the best prepared.

But time will tell which of these issues, if at all, will determine the outcome of this election. For more David Brooks, I encourage you to visit “The Conversation” at the New York Times Web site. There, he debates with fellow columnist Gail Collins.

The Big Leagues: SNL does Palin

In case you missed it, the much-anticipated return of Saturday Night Live kicked off in a much-expected way:  a Sarah Palin spoof.  Tina Fey returned to guest star in the role that she was born to play…  or at least a role she biologically fit the mold to play.  Watch the video below:

Vodpod videos no longer available.

more about “Hulu – Palin / Hillary Open: Saturday…“, posted with vodpod

 

 

Palin commented on the spoof here, saying it was “quite funny.”

In the coming weeks there will be a lot of political news to cover:  the debates, electoral map projections, polling, polling, polling and so much more.  Keep your eye on some of the links listed on the right of the page for the most up to date political news available.